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Bierbaumer-Polly, Jürgen (2016): Business Cycle Dynamics: An empirical analysis of macro, firm-level and regional data. Dissertation, LMU München: Faculty of Economics



In this dissertation I address business cycle analysis on the macro, the firm-level, and the regional dimension. In Chapter I, following the traditional macroeconomic (i.e. aggregated) view, I focus on composite leading indicators for the Austrian economy which help in catching turning points as early as possible and in forecasting economic activity more accurately. In Chapter II, I utilise individual firm-specific data for Austrian manufacturing firms, which allow studying the (macroeconomic) consistency of business tendency survey responses and taking firm-level heterogeneity explicitly into account. Firm-level, industry- and region-specific structural characteristics permit controlling for additional microeconomic heterogeneity. Finally, in Chapter III, I examine the evolution of business cycle synchronisation and specialisation patterns between EU regions (at the NUTS-3 level), and I analyse the effect of two distinct EU-enlargement steps (i.e. Eastern enlargement in 2004 and Northern enlargement in 1995) on these measures.