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Khomarudin, Muhammad Rokhis (2010): Tsunami Risk and Vulnerability: Remote Sensing and GIS Approaches for Surface Roughness Determination, Settlement Mapping and Population Distribution Modeling. Dissertation, LMU München: Faculty of Geosciences
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Abstract

The research focuses on providing reliable spatial information in support of tsunami risk and vulnerability assessment within the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) project. It contributes to three major components of the project: (1) the provision of spatial information on surface roughness as an important parameter for tsunami inundation modeling and hazard assessment; (2) the modeling of population distribution, which is an essential factor in tsunami vulnerability assessment and local disaster management activities; and (3) the settlement detection and classification from remote sensing radar imagery to support the population distribution research. Regarding the surface roughness determination, research analyses on surface roughness classes and their coefficients have been conducted. This included the development of remote sensing classification techniques to derive surface roughness classes, and integration of the thus derived spatial information on surface roughness conditions to tsunami inundation modeling. This research determined 12 classes of surface roughness and their respective coefficients based on analyses of published values. The developed method for surface roughness classification of remote sensing data considered density and neighborhood conditions, and resulted in more than 90% accuracy. The classification method consists of two steps: main land use classification and density and neighborhood analysis. First, the main land uses were defined and a classification was performed applying decision tree modeling. Texture parameters played an important role in increasing the classification accuracy. The density and neighborhood analysis further substantiated the classification result towards identifying surface roughness classes. Different classes such as residential areas and trees were combined to new surface roughness classes, as “residential areas with trees”. The density and neighborhood analysis led to an appropriate representation of real surface roughness conditions. This was used as an important input for tsunami inundation modeling. By using Tohoku University’s Analysis Model for Investigation Near-field Tsunami Number 3 (TUNAMI N3), the spatially distributed surface roughness information was integrated in tsunami inundation modeling and compared to the modeling results applying a uniform surface roughness condition. An uncertainty analysis of tsunami inundation modeling based on the variation of surface roughness coefficients in the Cilacap study area was also undertaken. It was demonstrated that the inundation modeling results applying uniform and spatially distributed surface roughness resulted in high differences of inundation lengths, especially in areas far from the coastline. This result showed the important role of surface roughness conditions in resisting tsunami flow, which must be considered in tsunami inundation modeling. With respect to the second research focus, the population distribution, a concept of population distribution modeling was developed. Within the modeling process, weighting factor determination, multi-scale disaggregation and a comparative study to other methods were conducted. The basis of the developed method was a combination of census and land use data, which led to an improved spatial resolution and accuracy of the population distribution. Socio-economic data were used to derive weighting factors to distributing people to land use classes. Moreover, in case of missing input data, an approach was developed that allows for the determination of generalized weighting factors. The approach to use specific weightings, where possible and generalized ones, where necessary, led to a flexible methodology with respect to the achievable accuracy and availability of data. A comparative study was performed by comparing this new model with previously developed population distribution models. The newly developed model showed a higher accuracy. The detailed population distribution information was a valuable input for the vulnerability assessment being the main data source for human exposure assessment and an important contribution to evacuation time modeling. In support of the population distribution research, settlement classification using TerraSAR-X imagery was conducted. A current classification method of speckle divergence analysis on SAR imagery was further developed and improved by including the neighborhood concept. The settlement classification provided highly accurate results in dense urban areas, whereas the method needs to be further developed and improved for rural settlement areas. Finally, it has been shown how the results of this research can be applied. These applications cover the integration of surface roughness conditions into the tsunami inundation modeling and hazard mapping. The contributions to tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation planning were shown. Additionally, the results were integrated into the decision support system of the Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta.